Global Intelligence Briefing for CEOs - Implications - Emergence of China
by Herbert Meyer, 2007
Herb Meyer served during the Reagan administration as special assistant to the Director of Central Intelligence and
Vice Chairman of the CIA's National Intelligence Council. In these positions, he managed production of the U.S.
National Intelligence Estimates (NIE) and other top-secret projections for the President and his national security
advisers.
Meyer is widely credited with being the first senior U.S. Government official to forecast the Soviet Union's
collapse, for which he later was awarded the U.S. National Intelligence Distinguished Service Medal, the intelligence
community's highest honor. Formerly an associate editor of FORTUNE, he is also the author of several books.
Four Major Transformations
Currently, there are four major transformations that are shaping political, economic and world events. These
transformations have profound implications for American business owners, our culture and our way of life.
This page discusses the implications of the emergence of China.
Implications Of The Four Transformations
2. The Emergence of China
It may be that pushing 500 million people from farms and villages into cities is too much too soon. Although it gets
almost no publicity, China is experiencing hundreds of demonstrations around the country, which is unprecedented.
These are not students in Tiananmen Square. These are average citizens who are angry with the government for building
chemical plants and polluting the water they drink and the air they breathe.
The Chinese are a smart and industrious people. They may be able to pull it off and become a very successful economic
and military superpower. If so, we will have to learn to live with it. If they want to share the responsibility of
keeping the world's oil lanes open, that's a good thing. They currently have eight new nuclear electric power
generators under way and 45 on the books to build. Soon, they will leave the U.S. way behind in their ability to
generate nuclear power.
What can go wrong with China? For one, you can't move 550 million people into the cities without major problems. Two,
China really wants Taiwan - not so much for economic reasons, they just want it. The Chinese know that their system of
communism can't survive much longer in the 21st century. The last thing they want to do before they morph into some sort
of more capitalistic government is to take over Taiwan.
We may wake up one morning and find they have launched an attack on Taiwan. If so, it will be a mess, both economically
and militarily. The U.S. has committed to the military defense of Taiwan. If China attacks Taiwan, will we really go to
war against them? If the Chinese generals believe the answer is no, they may attack. If we don't defend Taiwan, every
treaty the U.S. has will be worthless. Hopefully, China won't do anything stupid.