Global Intelligence Briefing for CEOs - Implications - War in Iraq
by Herbert Meyer, 2007
Herb Meyer served during the Reagan administration as special assistant to the Director of Central Intelligence and
Vice Chairman of the CIA's National Intelligence Council. In these positions, he managed production of the U.S.
National Intelligence Estimates (NIE) and other top-secret projections for the President and his national security
advisers.
Meyer is widely credited with being the first senior U.S. Government official to forecast the Soviet Union's
collapse, for which he later was awarded the U.S. National Intelligence Distinguished Service Medal, the intelligence
community's highest honor. Formerly an associate editor of FORTUNE, he is also the author of several books.
Four Major Transformations
Currently, there are four major transformations that are shaping political, economic and world events. These
transformations have profound implications for American business owners, our culture and our way of life.
This page discusses the implications of the war in Iraq.
Implications Of The War in Iraq
In some ways, the war is going very well. Afghanistan and Iraq have the beginnings of a modern government, which is a
huge step forward. The Saudis are starting to talk about some good things, while Egypt and Lebanon are beginning to
move in a good direction.
A series of revolutions have taken place in countries like Ukraine and Georgia. There will be more of these revolutions
for an interesting reason. In every revolution, there comes a point where the dictator turns to the general and says,
"Fire into the crowd." If the general fires into the crowd, it stops the revolution. If the general says "No," the
revolution is over. Increasingly, the generals are saying "No" because their kids are in the crowd.
Thanks to TV and the Internet, the average 18-year old outside the U.S. is very savvy about what is going on in the
world, especially in terms of popular culture. There is a huge global consciousness, and young people around the
world want to be a part of it. It is increasingly apparent to them that the miserable government where they live is
the only thing standing in their way. More and more, it is the well-educated kids, the children of the generals and
the elite, who are leading the revolutions.
At the same time, not all is well with the war. The level of violence in Iraq is much worse and doesn't appear to be
improving. It's possible that we're asking too much of Islam all at one time. We're trying to jolt them from the 7th
century to the 21st century all at once, which may be further than they can go. They might make it and they might not.
Nobody knows for sure. The point is, we don't know how the war will turn out. Anyone who says they know is just
guessing.
The real place to watch is Iran. If they actually obtain nuclear weapons it will be a terrible situation. There are two
ways to deal with it. The first is a military strike, which will be very difficult. The Iranians have dispersed their
nuclear development facilities and put them underground. The U.S. has nuclear weapons that can go under the earth and
take out those facilities, but we don't want to do that. The other way is to separate the radical mullahs from the
government, which is the most likely course of action.
Seventy percent of the Iranian population is under 30. They are Moslem but not Arab. They are mostly pro-Western. Many
experts think the U.S. should have dealt with Iran before going to war with Iraq. The problem isn't so much the weapons,
it's the people who control them. If Iran has a moderate government, the weapons become less of a concern.
We don't know if we will win the war in Iraq. We could lose or win. What we're looking for is any indicator that Islam
is moving into the 21st century and stabilizing.